Agriculture
Technologies
900 Million Farmers in China
The history of reform and opening up has witnessed three calls for the development of rural markets. 900 million farmers constitute the worlds largest group of consumers and have created the biggest business opportunity in China.
In the face of the dual competitive pressure posed to China by the hi-tech advantage of the developed countries and the price advantage resulted from the currency devaluation in surrounding countries, China has clearly indicated: From the long-term point of view, while actively exploring international markets, it is essential to actively develop the domestic market, particularly the rural market. This is a strategic choice in conformity with Chinas national conditions.
The rural market is the most dynamic, practical pivotal point in expanding domestic demands and boosting economic growth. Inadequate effective demand has become the greatest hindrance to Chinas current economic development. In the series of macro-control measures to be adopted in the second half of this year, exploring the rural market is regarded as "a rope for capturing the tiger". Experts estimation indicates: Every 100 billion yuan worth of final consumption realized in rural areas will generate 235.6 billion yuan worth of consumption demand for the entire national economy.
It is also a brand-new starting-point in the readjustment of economic structure and the readjustment of product mix. Today, the buyers market has penetrated to every corner of Chinas economy. Of the 900-odd important industrial products, the utilization rate of over half of the production capacity is less than 50 percent, structural readjustment is thus imminent.
In the effort to successfully open up the rural market, industrial enterprises must produce commodities geared to rural demands; and commercial enterprises must skillfully build smooth and swift marketing channels.
There are many difficulties confronting the effort to explore rural markets. Reasons for this are many. For example, some local governments have inadequate understanding of the importance and urgency of exploring rural markets, fear difficulty and lack confidence in accomplishing this task; quite a number of industrial and commercial enterprises still harbor the concept of "valuing cities while belittling the countryside", this is manifested in the fact that the product mix is incompatible with the rural market demand, the variety of commodities on sale is single and farmers find it inconvenient to buy.
In fact, the rural market has enormous potential and there are many favorable conditions for developing the rural market. So long as industrial and commercial enterprises really attach importance to the rural market, carefully study farmers demands, exert great efforts to do a good job in the work of exploring the rural market well, they can definitely achieve the anticipated results.
Industrial enterprises stress production of commodities geared to market needs, while commercial enterprises emphasize smooth and fast marketing channels.
Efforts should be made to develop new sales methods, such as chain-store, agency and distribution center and to establish various forms of sales networks wherein industry and commerce, commerce and commerce, town and country, state-owned commerce and individually-run and privately-run commerce join hands. Chinese business people will have ample scope for their abilities in rural markets.
The key to success in exploring rural markets lies in increasing farmers income. It is necessary to open up the rural consumer goods market to allow farmers to buy things; and it is also necessary to first open up the rural agricultural produce market, so that farmers purses will be bulging
Farmers income is stepping into the period of a new round of growth at reduced rate.
Slow increase in farmers income is the greatest factor thwarting efforts to explore rural markets. When farmers purses are not so bulging, increase in actual consumption demand will be slow. To increase farmers income is, in essence, to enhance the rural economys adaptability to the socialist market economy. In the opinions of authoritative persons, it is essential to get hold of two links: one is "what to grow". Farmers have to grow farm crops easy to yield added value.
To do so, it is necessary to readjust and optimize the agricultural structure, develop high-efficiency and high-value-added characteristic agriculture. Second is "how to sell the produce". To increase farmers income, it is essential to solve the problem concerning ties between the farmer and the market, farmers should be enabled to smoothly enter the big, ever-changing market. This requires development of industrial management of agriculture, and cultivation of a wholesale market system, intermediary service system and information service system.
Cultivating a wholesale trading market system by making use of the advantages of tradition, regional location, resources and industry is an important aspect in invigorating the flow of agricultural produce and industrial products. This has been proved by the experience of many localities.
China May Hold Future of Food Technology
By Dennis Avery
Senior fellow and Director, Center for Global Food Issues at the Hudson Institute
Is it possible the First World will give China a virtual monopoly in agricultural biotechnology, destined to be one of the most valuable technologies of the 21st century?
Have the United States and Europe thrown away billions of dollars in agriculture-related biotech earnings and hundreds of thousands of clean, high-tech research and support jobs?
The United States and Europe have spent billions of dollars doing basic research in genetically modified crops and animals to make foods that are better-tasting, more nutritious and kinder to the environment.
Will China now step in and charge the United States and Europe steep royalties for the right to grow the new organisms that result from this research?
Those are all strong possibilities, in the wake of the environmental group Greenpeaces stunningly swift and successful campaign to ban genetically modified foods and crops.
First World investors were afraid to be caught in another controversy like tobacco, or another set of baseless class-action lawsuits like the controversy over silicone breast implants.
Theyve bailed out on agricultural biotechnology long before governments dared act. To duck the controversy, Monsantos orphaned agricultural biotech unit will be dumped into a hostile stock market along with its multibillion-dollar laboratories and patents.
Ditto for the big agricultural biotech units of Europes Novartis and Zeneca. Look for layoffs from all three. And dont expect the laid-off scientists to land jobs at public research institutions.
The publicly funded research labs will be even more gun-shy of agricultural biotechnology now than the private sector. The erstwhile scientists will have to lay aside their doctorates and start new careers.
A lucky few may find jobs in human medical biotech, which the environmental movement has not attacked yet. This has nothing to do with risks to people or the environment. Despite media hype, no real dangers related to biotech foods have ever been documented.
But Greenpeace seems to want a smaller, poorer human population, so theyre willing to frighten the world back into the scientific Dark Ages. The one thing certain is genetic engineering in food production will not disappear.
When the astronomer Galileo published his proofs in 1632 that the Earth revolved around the sun, the Catholic Church put him under house arrest. The church had d the Earth the center of the universe. But people could never look at the sun in quite the same way again. They had new knowledge.
The First World may be so comfortable it can afford to pass up biotech foods. But the Third World is still struggling to provide adequate diets for its growing population.
For the developing world, the choices are stark. The can either use biotechnology to raise yields, grow more low-yield crops by clearing tropical forests or import food from the West. Given those choices, biotech foods look awfully attractive.
Most Third World countries are too small or poor to advance agricultural biotechnology on their own. Countries like Brazil and Argentina could assemble the scientific resources but theyre afraid of losing their export sales to nervous European and Japanese consumers.
India might like to develop high-yielding biotech crops to ease its cropland shortage, but its own prickly activists are still arguing over hybrid seeds. Theyre likely to hamstring Indian biotech into the near foreseeable future.
China is the one country in the world with the scientific power to carry biotechnology forward in agriculture, the urgent need for massive amounts of additional food and feed and no need to allow unfounded food scares to be published in its newspapers.
China already has over 1 million farmers growing genetically modified cotton, corn and soybeans because of lower costs. Anyone who doubts Chinas ability to carry forward good science is ignoring the countrys fabulous history and its recent ballistic missile tests.
"Golden rice" by itself may be enough to secure genetically engineered foods reputation among Chinese consumers. Asian women are at high risk of birth complications because of iron deficiency due to the phytate in the rice they eat.
Golden rice counteracts the phytate and provides ample dietary iron. It also contains plenty of Vitamin A, also lacking in many rice-culture diets.
The International Rice Research Institute is already breeding golden rice genes into popular rice varieties for the people of Asia and Africa. Is Greenpeace callous enough to try to frighten poor rice-culture consumers away from golden rice and back to childhood blindness?
Using biotechnology, China should be able to produce highly attractive foods, such as healthier fats for cooking, allergy-free nuts, more tender steaks and, at last, a tasty off-season tomato.
Every vitamin and mineral needed by the human body could be engineered into our foods, saving consumers billions of dollars in food supplements.
When First World consumers find out about such goodies, China can export them or charge farmers in other countries a fee to grow them.
The biotech crops will also feature sharply higher yields, especially on marginal farmlands where drought and acid soils currently limit production. Greenpeace should cheer this, since it will directly help save Asian tropical forests.
First World farmers will lose a significant part of their export potential, of course, if Third World farmers can produce higher yields and more desirable specialty foods through biotechnology. At the moment, that seems to be the price they pay for farming in a rich, overfed country.
农业技术推广是联系科技成果与农业生产之间的桥梁和纽带,能够有力的促进农业发展和带动农村经济。下文是我为大家搜集整理的农业技术推广论文2000字的内容,欢迎大家阅读参考!
浅论多元化农业技术推广模式
摘要:农业技术推广是联系农业科学与农业生产的中间环节,根据我国农业发展的特点和市场经济规律,加强农技推广模式建设是加快农业技术进步的有效手段。
关键词:多元化;经济规律;农业技术
1 国内外农业技术推广模式比较
美国重视农业技术推广,农业技术推广服务发展成为技术推广,建立农业 教育 、科研、推广相结合制度,进行宏观控制和协调,使美国的农业技术推广服务迅速兴起;日本通过学习欧美的农业改良运动,农业技术推广内容发展成为综合化服务,实现农业改良普及模式,重视民间团体,导致农业发生变革和逐步现代化。
发达国家的农业技术推广模式的建立,根据联合国粮农组织的调查,可分为六种类型。第一类:以政府农业部门为基础的推广模式;第二类:以大学为基础的推广模式;第三类:商品专业化的推广模式;第四类:是非政府性质的;第五类:私人推广模式;第六类:其他形式的推广组织,并通过立法来确立农业技术推广。
国外典型农业技术推广模式包括美国三位一体合作农业技术推广模式,即教学、科研、推广三位一体合作推广体系的基础;德国综合咨询式农业技术推广模式,咨询站工作范围向全体类型推广咨询机构;澳大利亚的分级农业技术推广模式,依据不同的农业发展阶段独立性较强;加拿大的经济区域农业技术推广模式,立足于本区域主导产品的服务需要;日本农业公务员与农协并行农业技术推广模式,技术员直接向农业生产者讲课,直接上门服务,推广是政府和农民团体并举的双轨制,日本农业技术推广服务另一个系统是农协;新西兰的咨询服务农业技术推广模式很大程度上是指牧业技术推广;以色列的多元咨询农业技术推广模式实行中央和地区二级;泰国的培训与访问农业技术推广模式,把农民组织成农民小组来提高推广效率。
农业是国民经济的基础,具有重要的战略意义。国外农业技术推广模式对我国的启示在于共同的特点就是各国政府都把农业推广当作一项公益事业。政府兴办农业推广是当今世界的主流,政府财政支持是推广经费的主要来源,以“人”为本的农业技术推广理念,科研、推广、教育三者之间的密切联系,重视农民的需求,有高素质的农业技术推广人员,培养集团化推广对象,农业推广商业化势头加强,农业推广领域向综合性、全方位发展。
2 多元化农业技术推广模式的构建
我国农业技术推广现状是目前推广主体主导下的农业技术推广模式包括政府主导型农业科技推广模式、科教单位主导型农业科技推广模式、企业主导型农业科技推广模式、农村经济合作组织主导型农业科技推广模式。
我国农业技术推广问题在于重科研、轻推广的传统观念严重,与市场需求不相适应,研究和应用推广相脱节,农业科技推广力量弱,人员素质差,农业科技推广体系不健全,承担着非农业技术推广的任务。
多元化农业技术推广模式建设的必要性在于它是我国农村经营特点的需求,是我国农业发展的需求,是我国农民特点的需求,是农业技术的特点决定的,其模式构建的原则顺应市场经济发展需求,利用市场机制,充分发挥非政府部门的作用,避免从部门利益和地方财政利益出发。制度设计要体现共性和地区特殊性,国家农技推广机构是主导,多元化农技推广主体主要围绕其运营目标,通过明确公益性职能,合理设置机构,农民等参与农业技术推广。
具体模式的构建包括:必须是市场化运作产业化为主导,政府推广组织是宏观推广主体,项目带动型推广模式,企业参与型推广模式,基地主导型推广模式,培训主导型推广模式,培育农协型推广模式,农民参与型推广模式引导千家万户自愿采纳农业新技术。宏观调控农业技术推广,以项目为载体,开展技术创新,以企业投资经营为主体,结合地方区域主导产业发展,充分利用社会的师资力量、教学设备,为农村和农协培养一批能人,组织农民参与推广过程。
3 多元化农业技术推广模式实施的政策
明确农技推广的保障机制和激励机制,加强政府制度供给。保证新的农业技术推广体系良好运作;加强农业创新技术供给,建立健全知识产权制度,农业技术总是在不断地向前发展,为促进技术成果交易提供相应的优惠政策,为农民带来显著的效益。
加强财政供给,提高农民对技术传播媒介的信任度,加大政府财政支持力度,大力发展技术市场与技术传播推广市场性组织,重点要建立高效的风险投资体系,向农民提供更多更好的实用技术,强化财政资金的导向作用。加大农业技术推广工作力度,通过各种途径发布农业技术成果。
建立农业绿色信息 渠道 ,转变职能,搞好服务。提高农户生产效率和生活水平的过程,要充分尊重市场经济规律,建立健全全国农产品供求,为农民创造良好的生产经营环境上搞好服务,完善农业部办公自动化系统。农业的可持续发展离不开科教的支持,加强科技与金融结合,极大地提高农户生产效率和生活水平的过程。
通过 网络技术 将农业科学技术传播到全国各地,用政策激励和调动农民的积极性,明确新阶段不同农技推广主体的性质,处处以农民为本,时时为农民着想,有必要建立新的投资机制。农业生产要适应国内国际统一的大市场,需要国家逐步加大对农业的保护力度。
可以采取以项目为主的推广模式,以技术为依托,以企业为主体,农业专家大院的混合模式,促进当地农业产业的发展。帮助各村制订发展规划、开展科技培训,进行跟踪式的技术指导和市场服务,通过建立相对稳定的合同关系,解决农户与市场、农业生产与科技的联接问题,完善农业部办公自动化系统,这也是促进农业和农村经济发展的重要途径,适应农业产业化经营发展的要求,让农业技术真正为农业生产服务。
参考文献
[1] 姚杰.我国农业技术推广模式改革路在何方,中国作物学会年会集,作物杂志,2004,6.
[2] 刘志成.科技创新是现代农业持续发展的源动力,农业现代化研究,2004,1.
[3] 张宝文.新阶段我国农业科技发展战略研究,中国农业出版社,2004,4.
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农业技术推广论文2000字篇2
浅谈影响生态农业推广的因素
摘要:生态农业是现代农业的发展方向,我国是农业大国,如何更好推广生态农业具有重大的实践意义。本文以河南焦作市的一个村庄为实证研究对象,通过调查运用多元线性回归模型得出生态农业基建支出和人力资本是影响该村发展生态农业的关键,在此基础上提出相应建议。
关键词:生态农业 多元线性回归模型 建议
一、引言
生态农业是按照生态学原理和经济学原理,运用现代科学技术成果和现代管理手段,以及传统农业的有效 经验 建立起来的,能获得较高的经济效益、生态效益和社会效益的现代化农业。
早在20世纪70年代后期,以马世骏院士为代表的学者就指出,要以生态平衡、生态系统的概念与观点来指导农业的研究与实践。1981年,马世骏先生在农业生态工程学术讨论会上提出了“整体、协调、循环、再生”生态工程建设原理。1982年,叶谦吉教授在银川农业生态经济学术讨论会上发表“生态农业—我国农业的一次绿色革命”一文,正式提出了中国的“生态农业”这一术语。我国是农业大国,农业现代化的进程决定着中国现代化进程的方向。
我国的农业具有发展分散,农业结构单一,粗放式经营的特点,这就要求按照生态农业的理念和规律,因地制宜的建设高产、优质、低耗、可持续的现代生态农业发展模式。经过30年的发展, 我国生态农业建设从无到有, 从小范围试验到大面积实施, 全国各地区的生态户、生态村、生态乡、生态县蓬勃发展起来。目前, 已初步形成了生态农业的技术体系, 有力地推动了我国传统农业向现代农业的发展。但同时也应看到其中的很多问题,许多学者也进行了大量的相关研究。
陈学军(2010)在对“生态农业的金融支持”的讨论中得出要加大政府支持力度,鼓励民间资本积极参与;创新金融产品;建立补偿风险机制以及信用担保体系加大资金;张燕(2011)在“生态农业的技术推广”中得出要建立适应生态农业发展需要的科技创新体系和技术推广体系;在生态农业的制度的研究提出了:加快管理制度,科技创新及推广制度,法律制度等的建设;王坚(2007)在中国产业化研究中提出建设农业生态基地;积极推广农产品认证制度;开发生态农业产业链等;王利群(2011)通过规范分析得出要对农民进行学历教育,专业技能,网络信息化, 政策法规 等方面进行培训;在区域化研究领域,有刘亚菲(2006)对江西省生态农业发展现状和模式的分析,指出其制约因素,并提出对策和 措施 ;王金爽等对盘锦市的生态农业发展综述。
但这些研究普遍存在以下问题:1、分析过于笼统,大部分在于理论叙述,很少有数据分析和计量;2、研究缺乏持续性,导致很多对策没有时效性,依旧是几大方向;3、生态农业有很强的区域性,目前对生态农业的研究大多还在全国层面,对区域的研究也不太深入,没有可实施性。
本文对以上问题进行了深入探讨,首先选择河南焦作市山阳区百间房乡上马村这一区域进行调查,把影响该区域生态农业推广的因素量化,进行回归分析,得出影响生态农业发展的关键因素,同时给出相应的建议。
本文的结构:第一部分主要是模型的建立,包括指标选取和数据说明,初始模型假定,模型检验,模型修正和模型分析;第二部分给出主要结论,并在此基础上深入。
二、模型的建立
(一)指标选定及数据说明
本文所选的1990—2006年数据是来自于《中国统计年鉴2008》和《河南统计年鉴2008》,以及实际搜集到的资料统计、计算、分析而得。现对相关变量给予说明。
1、生态农业实际产值Yi
已知该地区第i年农业产值占河南农业产值的比重Wi1,调查到的该地区农业中相应年份农、林、牧、渔等生态农业比重Wi2,河南农业产值ni,以1990年的农村消费物价指数为100,算得各年相应的消费物价指数ci,由以下公式算得第i年的生态农业实际产值Yi
Yi = niWi1Wi2/ci(i = 1990,1991...2006)
2、生态农业基本建设支出X1i
农业基本建设支出即政府财政直接用于发展农业和为农业生产服务的各种固定资产投资,是发展农业的物质载体和基本要素。该地区的X1i由下列方式给出:
X1i = XWi3Wi4/ci
其中X是河南投到农业基本建设的资金的序列,Wi3是投到该地区的比重,Wi4是投到生态农业的比重,ci同上。
3、人力资本水平2i
由于人力资本存量数据的不易获得性,我们以比例的形式给出。首先使用教育年限法,以该地区历年从事农业人员数和其受教育状况计算人力资本存量,根据该地区人口资料有关受教育的分类,将教育层次分级,以各级的平均受教育年限作为权数基值并作适当调整得存量H:
H1 = ∑HEimi H2 = ∑HAimi
其中,HEi为第i学历层次的从事生态农业的人数,HAi为第i层从事农业人员总数,mi为第i学历水平的受教育年限,将文盲半文盲m1定为0.5年,小学m2为6年,初中m3为9年,高中m4为12年,大学及以上m5为16年 , X2i = H1/H2。
4、生态农业科技投入X3i
农业科技资金投入是指用于农业科技引进、研究和推广的支出。同样的,X3是投入河南省的科技资金序列,Wi5是投入到该地区的科技资金比重,Wi6是生态农业所占比重,X3i=X3Wi5Wi6/c
5、生态农业环境投入X4i
环境投入是指用来进行环境改善,环境保护,抵制自然灾害等支出,这些数据由调查直接可得,平减过消费指数即得。
6、其他生态农业支出X5i
其他生态农业支出包括除以上其他以外的所有用于跟生态农业有关的支出,主要包括对生态产出的检测标准的完善投入,产出和市场的对接服务支出,以及相应的政府管理体系的投入。此项主要用剩余法算得,同时随物价做相应调整。
(二)初始模型假定
Y = C0 + C1X1 + C2X2 + C3X3 + C4X4 + C5X5 + e 运用普通最小二乘法(OLS)对初始模型进行估计,结果如下图:
该模型R2=0.9742,2=0.9625可决系数很高,F检验83.147,明显显著,但 X1、X3的系数为负,与预期相反,且系数的t检验不显著,这表明很可能存在严重的多重共线性。
(三)模型检验:
算得各解释变量的相关系数,得下列矩阵
由相关系数矩阵可以看出:各解释变量相互之间的相关系数较高,确实存在严重的多重共线性。
(四)模型修正
1、现采用以下 方法 进行模型优化,筛选最佳模型(表中列出了所有回归模型,其中一元回归模型只取了Y关于X2的模型,括号内为t值):
根据以下标准:
I 系数符合经济意义,不能为负
II 所有解释变量全部显著
III 可决系数要高,此模型中要大于0.93
筛选得模型2,3,7,9符合。
2、对2,3,7,9模进行自相关性检验(DW检验)
DW3=0.809 < DL=1.015
DW9=0.89 < DL
以上两个模型明显存在正相关,排除。
剩下的2,7模型的自相关性均无法判断,DW介于DU和DL之间。
3、对2,7进行异方差检验(White检验)
结果如下:
模型2
R2 = 0.256431,P = 0.597552
模型7
R2 = 0.402251,P = 0.271913
可以看出两个模型均不存在异方差,但考虑到P值越小越好,综合分析,认为模型2更优。
4、最优模型
Y = -2.544551 + 23.38843X1 + 39.75376X2
t值 (8.322649) (8.802230)
R2 = 0.97,2 = 0.967
5、模型分析:
模拟程度分析:由模拟结果可知,最终模型的模拟结果比较满意,拟合度较高,说明最终模型预测效果较好。
经济意义分析:
从预测结果看,基本建设支出每增加1个单位,生态农业产值增加23.39单位,人力资本水平每增加1,产值增加39.75,显然,基建和人力资本对产值有重要的影响。
三、引申
从统计数据的过程来看,现在还很少有具体的关于生态农业直接的数据,这也增加了数据获得的困难,好在该调查地区较小,人口相对较少,作者对此地区又非常熟悉,所以获得了第一手资料。从Y值来看,生态农业产值逐年增加,比率不断上升,说明生态农业正逐步推广,但从相对值上看,生态农业还有很大的发展空间。对此地区的模拟回归方程来看,固定资产投资力度还不够,规模不够大。农业基础设施建设投入还不足,所占比率不高,推动农业经济快速发展的主动力还有待进一步体现。同时,农民的受教育程度不高,严重影响了生态农业的推广,学习渠道和培训机会的稀缺更使得推广难上加难。
虽然模型方程中未体现其他三种因素,但并不代表其次要性。从以下图示可看出
生态科技投入正变得越来越有影响,只是该地区每年的投入资金相对较少,但可喜的是,每年的增长率正不断上升,可预见以后的10到20年定能成为主要推动生态农业发展的力量。由于生态农业有很强的地域性和时间性,在此地区是根本因素的,不一定是其他地区的根本因素。而且按照目前的情况,以上两点是关键,但随着生态农业的进一步推广和发展,其他因素就很可能成为关键,所以更需要那些关注生态农业发展的人能够实证分析,给予针对性和可行性的建议。这也是本文的目的和意义所在。希望激发更多对生态农业的量化研究,创新出更优的计量模型。
在生态农业的推广中,建立一个良好的的融资环境是必不可少的。从主体上看政府作为基本建设支出的主体,加大农民真正所需的基本设施的投入力度,建立一系列的监督机制,确保资本的有效率,但政府每年的财政支出是有限的,所要投入的领域又是相对无限的。我们不能依靠政府来解决所有的事;所以可以借助市场经济的强大力量让企业进入生态农业领域,这就需要政策上的倾斜,真正形成农业产业化,打造农产品的知名品牌,同时也要建立相应的生态产品的监测标准,定期通过媒体发布检测排名;另一方面作为生态农业的主体农民,可以通过生态农业贷款优惠以及自有资金的 保险 制度来扩大融资渠道;最后要建立健全有关融资的法律法规,减少融资漏洞。
对于农村的人力资本问题,一方面可以对农民再教育,但很显然传统的教育模式已经不适应当前的农村情况,识字率,时间精力以及兴趣,都导致农民进行传统学习的机会成本过高;因此需要创新农民的教育模式,开展专业技能培训但培训方式还有待斟酌。根据以往的历史经验和笔者的生活经历,典型的示范效应在农村会发挥很大的作用;另一方面我们可以增加农村现存的人力资本,可以通过政府政策引导大学生回到家乡发展,为农村发展贡献出自己的一份力量;还可以通过大学教育的侧重,用巧妙的方式对大学生进行正确合理的引导。
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